When there is no wave in favour of one party or the other, Lok Sabha election is like lottery. That’s because post-1977, multiple non-Congress parties have emerged holding aloft regional issues, at the expense of larger national parties.
One reason that led to mushrooming of regional parties was that we don’t have good devolution of administrative powers. These parties have tried to establish strong regional power centres.
What has undone this effort is that the new-found power has been used without responsibility. The local administrative bodies are incompetent and non-committal to the society’s welfare. Instead of focusing on development, local parties have flirted dangerously with extremist, radical and emotive issues.
The net result: in Lok Sabha elections like the one that just got over (where there is no clear wave), the electorate vote either keeping local issues or national issues in mind.
So we had plethora of issues like terrorism, US nuclear deal, price rise, communalism, power and water crises, lack of good roads, transport facilities etc. These are either local or national issues or a mixture of both.
So, it’s impossible to clearly say why the UPA retained power and that too with a bigger margin, why NDA campaign failed to deliver, why some candidates won, why some lost.
Indian general election is not one national election, but a sum total of 543 local elections. The composition of the Lok Sabha reflects this. We can at best say why individuals won or lost.
When we say issues like Modi leadershp, Varun speech, Singur row, Lanka issue, Karat’s betrayal, Rahul-Priyanka effect, Yeddiyurappa govt’s performance etc proved crucial, it’s true only in a local context.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
For the first time in recent Lok Sabha elections, national parties — Congress (around 200) and BJP (around 115) — have come out stronger. The parties next in line have around just 20-25.
After nearly two decades of experimentation, it looks like the Indian voter has realised it’s better to trust the national parties — be it local issue or national issue. We have seen how small parties have exploited fractured mandates to drive selfish bargains holding the nation to ransom.
Probably we are seeing the sidelining of smaller spoilsports and re-emergence of big players like the Congress and the BJP. I have my choice between the two, but I trust the two with nation’s future. Neither will do anything to harm India’s and Indians’ intersts. What we must be wary of are fringe, radical elements engaging in mischief evenwhile riding piggy on the big two parties.
The Congress and the BJP should strengthen their pan-Indian influence. In states where neither has any signifant presence, they should pick regional allies with caution, for what is at stake is their national image, so also the nation’s prosperity.
May 18, 2009 at 12:55 am
Exactly! I hope the message reaches the national parties.
May 18, 2009 at 3:03 am
Yes, you are spot on. But BJP has a long way to go.. I think this election results have underlined the fact that BJP might be the other national party but it does not have a pan-Indian acceptablity. For that to come about, BJP has to leave behind a lot of baggage and try and be a responsible opposition party for the next five years..
Congress of course, has the responsibility to show that they will deliver – now that they are not held ransom by the Left and other opportunistic parties…
May 18, 2009 at 12:06 pm
Yes, you have expressed it so well..
2 national parties have emerged and both Congress and BJP needs to mend its ways. Let us hope for the best.
May 18, 2009 at 2:49 pm
– Yamini, yes, the political parties have to realise their responsibility.
– Smitha, BJP does have quite a bit of presence. Interestingly, the largest state team of BJP in Lok sabha is from Karnataka, 19.
– HK, I only hope cheap politics doesn’t create hurdles to the govt.
May 20, 2009 at 11:19 am
Without living the Indian political scene, it would be presumptuous of me to suggest any alternative analysis here. But one point I would like to make is that in the US, a country with a strong two-party system, a large percentage of the electorate would welcome a viable multiparty system.
So for a country like India with such a diverse population (multiple languages, cultures), it might be a blessing to have those niche parties to represent the interests of various sections in the country.
What I believe is wrong perhaps is that our Indian system allows these niche players to use their wins to jockey for bribes and favors once they are elected than look after the interests of those sections they were supposed to represent.
(Comment crossposted from Multiply)